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Hopes for better wheat crop in Punjab, KP - Lahore_Real_Estate - 08-24-2010 11:49 AM
ISLAMABAD: The drying effect of the devastating floods is expected to begin in 2 to 3 days, amid hopes for higher than estimated wheat output in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, but worries about lower yield in Sindh, a senior government official said on Monday.
Chairman of the Federal Flood Commission (FFC) Zarar Aslam told a group of journalists that no major monsoon system was expected to develop in the next 5 to 8 days and that would help provincial governments and lending agencies to complete the damage and need assessment.
However, in the event of more rains on the Indian side, eastern rivers, particularly Sutlej and Chenab, could cause flooding because Indian reservoirs were full to capacity and the government agencies would need to remain vigilant. “In the next 7-8 days, there is no forecast for a monsoon system, neither in Bay of Bengal nor in the Arabian sea.”
The FFC chief said Pakistan’s own barrages and dams were now full and would need to be opened if there were more rains.
He said the water which had flooded arid lands in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa was draining out and that would enhance wheat output because of the fertility effect of floods. The situation in Sindh would remain critical because its lands were already water logged.
Mr Aslam said the Pakistan Meteorological Department had issued an advisory as early as June 21 about the emerging flood situation and three separate meetings held at the Armed Force’s General Headquarter, National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) and the Ministry of Water and Power between June 28 and July 8 had taken provincial governments and relevant agencies into confidence about possible dangers and preparedness. The PMD had very clearly forecast ‘very very heavy rainfalls’ well in time, he said.
Answering a question about allegations of politically motivated breaches of barrages and protection bunds on the desires of government ministers and influential people, including the one levelled by former prime minister Zafarullah Khan Jamali, Mr Aslam said the FFC was no position to say anything about such allegations because the structures were under provincial jurisdiction.
However, he supported a call for an independent investigation to determine the truth and avoid repetitions in future. He said that some of the major breaches, including at Taunsa and Muzaffargarh, had occurred because of the trigger effect of heavy floods never seen in Pakistan’s history.
He said the government was already working on an investigation body and his organisation would provide full cooperation in such investigations. He said the FFC was purely a technical organisation that did not directly plan, initiate, execute or complete flood protection projects.
He said that only Rs25.7 billion were given in the last three decades for flood protection projects which were executed by provincial governments. He played down statements emanating from Lahore about investigations against FFC for the flood losses caused by substandard protection works and said that the Punjab government should better investigate its irrigation departments which had executed such projects.
Mr Aslam said that lack of storage capacity on the Indus was a major cause of the flooding and devastation. “Had there been dams like Kalabagh on the Indus, the damage could have been avoided,” he said, adding that Pakistan stored only 12 per cent of its surface water flows against international standards of 40 per cent.
The two dams – Tarbela and Mangla – were losing 1.5 per cent of their capacity every year because of siltation. He said the Kalabagh dam would have also saved Nowshera from this year’s inundation because the project also involved dykes for Nowshera’s protection.
He said the economic benefit of one million acre feet (1 MAF) of water had been estimated at Rs6 billion, which meant that at least Rs250 billion had been lost this year. According to his estimate about 40 MAF of water may have gone into the sea although exact estimates would be made by the Indus River System Authority (Irsa) when exceptionally high floods passed Kotri barrage over the next few days.
He confirmed reports that the maintenance of bunds and embankments had not been up to the mark this year and hence the provincial government needed to be trained for flood management.
Now onwards, he said the government should focus on watershed management which was a major cause of concern and safety standards of barrages and dykes need to be properly designed.
He said most of the damage this year was caused by illegal construction of hotels and settlements on the riverbed and a proper flood plan zoning could not be delayed for another disaster.
Likewise, there was also a need for insurance of crops and infrastructure to avoid losses and avoid the financial pressure on the government coffers.