News Analysis: Stage set for new political alignments

[LahoreEstate]

* PPP and PML-Q negotiate power-sharing formula for alliance in Punjab, amid PML-N efforts to dislodge federal govt

By Amjad Warraich

LAHORE: The national stage is set for new political alignments after an exchange of personal attacks between top leaders of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), and sources privy to the developments say the PPP and the PML-Quaid (PML-Q) are negotiating on a power-sharing formula for an alliance in Punjab.

It is believed that realpolitik and not moral and ethical ideals will now govern the political decisions in the country.

The PML-N’s three major weak points are Nawaz Sharif’s electoral qualification case in the Supreme Court, a big question mark on his eligibility to become prime minister for a third term, and the future of the Shahbaz Sharif-led Punjab government which is yet to leave an impact.

The federal government’s failure to resolve the energy crisis, the war on terror, the lawyers’ movement and the demand for the repeal of the 17th Amendment are growing liabilities for the PPP.

The PML-N’s decision to join the lawyers’ March 9 ‘long march’ towards Islamabad and a sit-in in the federal capital shows Nawaz has made up his mind to form a new political alliance against the PPP-led government with an objective to destabilise it. The APDM component parties and representatives of some civil society organisations are already with the lawyers.

The PPP leadership is concerned the Punjab government might help hundreds of thousands of protesters reach Faizabad and other entrances to the capital.

Islamabad will have no support from Punjab in terms of security personnel to handle these marchers, and the federal capital may be paralysed for an indefinite period, courtesy the Punjab government.

It appears that the PML-N wants to dislodge the PPP government as soon as possible, while the PPP government is trying its best to complete its constitutional five-year term.

The PPP, which is still a part of the Punjab cabinet, has little time to make a final decision on whether it would overthrow the Shahbaz government in Punjab with the help of PML-Q and independents-turned-Nawaz League legislators.

Power-sharing formula: Sources privy to the developments told Daily Times the PPP and the PML-Q are negotiating on a power-sharing formula for an alliance in Punjab.

The proposals include making a senior leader from the ruling party – likely Shah Mahmood Qureshi or Qasim Zia – the Punjab chief minister, as PML-Q’s Moonis Elahi is not experienced enough to deal with the PML-N opposition. But the PML-Q may get 60 percent of the provincial ministries in that case and 40 percent of the parliamentary secretary posts, according to the formula being discussed.

PML-Q leader Atta Maneka is expected to stay isolated, the sources said, but the rest of the leaders would join the alliance. Only the younger of the Sharif brothers – sitting Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif – will likely be disqualified from elections, they added.

The PML-Q may want its president Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain to be made the Punjab governor – in which case the incumbent governor, Salmaan Taseer, would be accommodated in the federal cabinet via Senate.

Other options include a Senate seat for Chaudhry Shujaat, for which PML-Q Punjab President Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi has already started mustering support.

Sources in the party said Elahi is holding meetings with Punjab legislators for the purpose.

The party needs the support of 53 members in the house of 371 to secure a general seat in Senate. The PML-Q had won 84 seats in the Punjab Assembly in the 2008 elections, but the strength reduced to 36 on September 6, when 30 of its members voted for PML-N candidate Justice ® Saeeduzzaman Siddiqui in the presidential election, and 16 for PPP’s Asif Ali Zardari. The PML-Q later gathered 62 members at Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi’s residence for an Iftar dinner, but only with the help of Punjab Governor Salmaan Taseer.

Several of the 36 members who voted for the PML-Q candidate in the presidential election have now joined a ‘forward bloc’, including one from the Chaudhrys’ hometown Gujrat and three from Faisalabad.

There is a big question mark on the PML-Q’s capacity to win a seat for Shujaat – especially in secret balloting in which members have no fear of being disqualified – in an election that may have a remarkable impact on the family’s future in politics. The former ruling party is therefore open to an alliance, but the PML-N seems least interested in taking the Chaudhrys in its fold at least for the time being.

The Awami National Party, the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, the Muttahida Qaumi Movement and many nationalist and progressive parties are already with the PPP.

In this emerging scenario, the chances of political rearrangement are bright, with one alliance led by the PPP and consisting of all political parties in the National Assembly except the PML-N, and the other one led by the PML-N consisting of parties that boycotted the February 2008 general elections and the lawyers movement leaders who also missed the electoral train.

http://dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?pag...009_pg1_10