Pakistan must exploit Taliban leadership rifts

[Naveed Yaseen]

* Former FATA security chief says all signs indicate battle for succession still on

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan must exploit rifts among Taliban commanders jostling to inherit the brutal legacy of rebel chief Baitullah Mehsud, or risk the power vacuum being filled by Al Qaeda, analysts say.

An apparent heir, Hakimullah Mehsud, has emerged in the battle to succeed Mehsud after his reported death near the Afghan border, but analysts and officials said that infighting continues despite the claims and swirling rumours.

On August 5, a missile from a US drone struck a house deep in the mountains of South Waziristan, where Mehsud was said to be receiving medical treatment. Pakistani officials are almost certain the feared warlord was killed in the attack.

Desperate to salvage unity among Taliban foot soldiers, the militia insists he is simply ill, but that has not prevented a fierce battle from breaking out for command over his fighters.

“There is a possibility they (the Taliban) could split if the government and the military and the intelligence agencies exploit the situation. It is a window of opportunity," defence analyst Talat Masood said.

But the consequences of not taking further action could be dire, analysts say, with either a new militant boss emerging and staging spectacular attacks in a show of strength, or a dangerous power void opening up in the tribal belt. “In the beginning, each one of them -- in order to consolidate his power -- will probably commit ruthless acts," said Masood. And if no clear leader emerges from the fray and the government does not step in, other militant groups could take advantage of lawless region straddling Pakistan and Afghanistan.

“Al Qaeda fills in the vacuum of leadership,” Masood warned. Analyst and columnist Shafqat Mahmood said Al Qaeda also had the advantage of access to funds from overseas.

“When you have too much internal squabbling, sometimes somebody from outside can become the least unwelcome person,” he said.

There are a handful of contenders to succeed Mehsud, with Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan deputy Molvi Faqir last week briefly claiming leadership, before anointing senior Mehsud henchman Hakimullah Mehsud to the top spot.But analysts and officials say that another Taliban faction wants to see top commander Waliur Rehman at the helm.

Battle: “Various signals indicate that the battle for succession is still on. There is still a confusion, nothing is clear,” said Brigadier ® Mahmood Shah, former FATA security chief.

Confirming the rifts with the Taliban themselves is difficult, with militant commanders only calling reporters when they want to comment. So far, there has been no word from Rehman and his faction. But speaking on condition of anonymity, a Taliban commander said that Mehsud named Rehman, as his successor in his will.

Masood said the government and military must play a clever game to further rip at the fabric of the militant structure, with a sustained military presence in the tribal belt coupled with intensified intelligence efforts.

Writing in London's Evening Standard newspaper, veteran Pakistani journalist Ahmed Rashid said the government now had an “unprecedented opportunity to turn the tide against the Taliban and Al Qaeda”. Rashid advocated a similar assault in the tribal belt to the one in Swat earlier this year, and said there was strong US pressure for such action.

But Shafqat cautioned against too much interference in the fiercely independent tribal areas.

“If they are killing each other, I don't think the government should have any problem with that. If they introduce an outside element it's quite possible they stop fighting each other and start fighting the government,” he said. afp

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp...009_pg7_21