Karzai faces legitimacy crisis after Abdullah pullout: analysts

[Naveed Yaseen]

By Chris Otton

Analysts and diplomats say the run-off is still likely to take place, with ballot papers featuring Karzai and Abdullah already printed

Abdullah Abdullah's withdrawal from Afghanistan's run-off election may ensure Hamid Karzai remains president but will rob the incumbent of legitimacy and further boost a Taliban insurgency, said analysts.

The decision by the former foreign minister, six days before the country was once again due to go to the polls, is set to prolong a political crisis and throws into doubt whether the election will go ahead as a one-man contest.

Analysts believe that Karzai, who came to power in late 2001 after a US-led coalition drove the Taliban from Kabul, still wants the run-off to give him legitimacy for a second term in office.

But with voters disillusioned by first-round fraud and nervous of Taliban attacks, turnout is likely to be more miserable than the 38.7 percent recorded on August 20.

“If voter turnout is very, very low, below 20 percent, then even though he will be declared the winner … he will lack legitimacy in the eyes of Afghans and the opposition,” Haroun Mir, head of Afghanistan's Centre for Research and Policy Studies, told AFP. “Dr Abdullah could make a lot of problems for him, because, firstly, they could refuse to recognise his legitimacy and also they could refuse to recognise his authority.”

Analysts and diplomats say the run-off is still likely to take place, with ballot papers featuring Karzai and Abdullah already printed.

“There is no provision in the Afghan constitution for a candidate withdrawing from a run-off and in such an event the Supreme Court will have to make a ruling,” one diplomat said. Judges in such a situation were likely to declare that Karzai had been re-elected, the diplomat added.

Nader Naderi, head of a pro-democracy lobby group, said Afghan law stipulated that a run-off has to take place. “The constitution does not present any other alternatives,” said Naderi, who heads the Free and Fair Election Foundation.

“It becomes a political crisis and there's little way to handle it within the current legal framework,” he told AFP. However, Daoud Sultanzoi, an independent lawmaker who was formerly in Karzai's cabinet, said other alternatives had to be found.

“This is totally new territory, unchartered territory. The elections did not go into a second round for normal reasons but because of fraud,” he told AFP.

“In this case, he (Karzai) can do whatever he wants but it will be disputed in the court of law, and nationally and internationally … This is not a popularity contest between the two candidates but about the will of the nation. We have to think about new mechanisms, think outside the box.”

Sultanzoi advocated the holding of a new Loya Jirga, a traditional national Afghan assembly which brings together tribal elders.

Such an approach, Sultanzoi argued, could help persuade moderate Taliban leaders that they have a stake in the country's future and therefore take some of the heat out of the insurgency.

“We have to become more creative in light of the fact that we are trying to penetrate the ranks of the Taliban and work out who are the ones who want to talk,” he said.

Naderi said the big beneficiaries were the Taliban, who have threatened to intensify attacks in the build-up to polling on next Saturday.

Taliban attacks, which included the firing of rockets at polling stations on August 20, were seen as a major factor in suppressing turnout.

“A political crisis ... as it was in the last two months would really be to the benefit of the Taliban,” said Naderi.

“They will be able to recruit more people, have more effective PR, using the current situation to convince more people that this is not working and let us do it in the right way.” afp

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp...09_pg20_10