Climate change and food security concerns

[Naveed Yaseen]

Agricultural production and climate change are intricately linked. Despite the technological advances such as improved crop varieties, efficient irrigation practices and genetically modified organisms, weather and climate are still the dominant factors in agricultural production. The phenomenon of global warming has grave implications for the agriculture sector and more so for Pakistan being an agro-based economy. Importantly, changes in the average patterns of temperature and precipitation in a matter of a few decades coupled with increase in frequency and intensity of extreme events (e.g. heavy rains, droughts, cyclones etc) are detrimental as they allow no room for biota adjustment and adaptation. It is important to remember that the effect of climate change or weather extremes on agriculture is related to variability in local climate resulting from the global climate changes rather than by the global level changes directly. Thus, agronomists consider local area assessment to be of critical importance.

The scientific community is generally of the view that the average global temperature is expected to rise by 2-40C during the current century. The temperature increases may be even larger in countries like Pakistan. Research shows that substantial losses are likely in the rain-fed wheat in South and Southeast Asia. In South Asia, according to a World Bank report published in 1998, the loss in farm-level net revenue will range between 9-25% for a temperature rise of 2-5C. Under the most conservative climate change scenarios the net cereal production in South Asian countries is projected to decline by 4 to 10% by the end of this century.

Agriculture is the linchpin of Pakistan’s economy contributing one-fifth to GDP and two-thirds to country’s exports, according to Economic Survey of Pakistan 2006-07. Over 43% of country’s population earns its livelihood directly or indirectly from agriculture activities. Increasing temperature due to global warming, erratic and unpredictable rainfall patterns and water shortages have deep seated agricultural consequences. Poverty and illiteracy among farmers further exasperate the situation. The rise in temperature will not only affect growth, maturity and productivity of the crops but require additional amount of irrigation water to compensate the heat stress. Agricultural activity in mountainous, arid and coastal regions is likely to exhibit increased vulnerability to effects of climatic change. Hence, climate change raises the crucial questions of livelihood and food security for the people of Pakistan.

The studies conducted by the Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), Islamabad, using crops simulation models especially for wheat and rice show a notable reduction in their yields due to climate change that is worthy of national concern. Keeping other factors like water provision, fertilizer input, use of modern technology and pests’ attacks as of today the yield of wheat is estimated to reduce by 6-8% by 2080 due to expected rise in temperature. One can, therefore, deduce that the plains of Punjab and Sindh, the food basket of Pakistan producing 90% of the annual national wheat production, shall produce about 10% less wheat by the turn of the century compared to what they could if the climate were to remain unchanged.

Although the rise in temperature shall have positive impact on wheat yield in the Northern areas resulting in some 50% increase in productivity, yet this will have a minor impact on the country as a whole as the Northern Areas contribute 5-6% to the total wheat production in Pakistan. The scenarios for rice production are much more alarming as the rise in temperature and water deficit shall affect the rice yields to a much larger extent. The yield of basmati rice is projected to decrease by 15-18% by 2080 as a result of temperature increases associated with the expected climate change.

Notably, Pakistan is already facing food crisis with an expected domestic production of around 22 million tones (which is tagged as an optimistic figure by some experts) which will have a shortfall of some 2.5 million tones to be met by imports in order to meet the domestic food requirements. Erratic weather patterns and shortfall in the targeted sowing of land by 0.37 million hectares according to MINFAL have resulted in failure to meet the expected production of 24 million tones.

Long queues outside utility stores to get wheat flour just recently are mere glimpses of what might happen more severely and more frequently in a matter of few years.

Pakistan is among the group of countries that face severe food crisis today and need immediate external assistance to prevent further deterioration. Increasing demand of bio-fuel, rising prices of fertilizers and growing demand for food have created food shortage and pushed up food prices. According to the US Agriculture Secretary, the wheat stocks have struck the lowest value in the last 30 years around the world. The grim but factual statement of Mr Jacques Diouf, Director-General Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations regarding food security around the globe raises many pertinent concerns on food security in Pakistan and its socio-economic and political impact.

According to a recent report of World Bank, wheat prices rose by 181% and general food prices rose by 83% globally over the last three years. The price of wheat rose by 120% just over the past year. Correspondingly, in Pakistan wheat price have been sky rocketing, currently touching the official rate of Rs625/40 kg (above 50% higher than 2005). Coupled with the rising food prices and food shortage is the likelihood that there is no immediate remedy or solution to the problem and it is likely to persist as stated by Mr Jacques Diouf. The scenario raises grave concerns regarding food security in Pakistan in the coming years coupled with reduced yields due to climate change impacts for a population increasing at a rate of 1.9% per annum that shall double in next 37 years.

A comprehensive coping strategy has to be devised to reduce the impacts of global climate change on crops in Pakistan as the impacts cannot be fully controlled. Research is underway at Global Change Impact Studies Centre, Islamabad, to come up with agricultural adaptation strategies: such as, changes in crop planting dates, better irrigation techniques, more accurate seasonal forecast to the possible extent and the development of heat tolerant varieties of crops, in order to avoid the agricultural repercussions of climate change in Pakistan to the maximum. Capacity building of research institutions, pro-active approach of political leaders, combined efforts of governmental and non-governmental organisations and stakeholders, and timely decision-making and policy implementation are vital to mitigate the production losses whatsoever, threatening the very fundamental human requirements of food security and livelihood.

— Asma Rashid

(The author is scientific information officer at Global Change Impact Studies Centre, Islamabad)

asma.rashid@gcisc.org.pk and asma.ras@gmail.com

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