Gwadar: the future of Pakistan

[LRE]

Gwadar: the future of Pakistan – 1

Mukaram Khan

Gwadar deep seaport undoubtedly retains a significant role in the future economic boom of Pakistan, particularly in the wake of the trade potentials of the Central Asian Republics. The foreseeable rapid development of western China will create tremendous economic and trade enterprises. Gwadar was selected as an alternative seaport, since port Qasim did not have the capacity to accommodate the expected load.

Gwadar’s location, at the entrance of Strait of Hormuz, provides enormous economic opportunities not only to Pakistan but to other regions also, like the Central Asian Republics, Middle East, South Asia and Gulf States. However, the prevailing non-conducive security environments and instable political situation in Pakistan are of grave concern to the project’s completion. The implications erupting for regional and outer powers are fragile and need to be handled carefully, owing to its immense geo-strategic significance. Albeit, the site of Gwadar was identified in 1964, however, technical and financial feasibilities that commenced as late as 8th five year plan (1993 - 97) included the development of Gwadar port. In 2001, the proposal turned to a miraculous realty when China finally agreed to undertake the onerous project of construction and development of Gwadar project. Resultantly, in March 2002, the Chinese Vice Premier Wu Bangguo laid the foundation stone of the deep seaport. As envisaged in the master plan, it was to be undertaken in two phases. Phase one includes three multi purpose berths which have the length of 600 meters, 4.5 kilometers long approach channel dredged to 12.5 meters, turning basin of 450 meters diameter, one service berth of 100 meter length and related port infrastructure and equipment etc. It is pertinent to mention that the port shall operate smoothly, just like a modern port. The ports having completed phase one can handle bulk carriers of 30,000 dead weight tons (DWT) and container vessels of 25,000 DWT. Phase two of the project will comprise of nine additional berths which include four container berths, one bulk cargo terminal capable of handling 100,000 DWT ships one grain terminal and two oil terminals to handle 200,000 DWT ships.

This reflects that a revolutionary economic sector growth in the country is in the offing as the project is not only related to the shipping sector, but would also entail multidirectional networks of motorways and rail communication. The evident international economic prospects include trade opportunities with the Central Asia and Gulf and trans-shipment of containerised cargo. The economic uplift of Balochistan is not too far off either as the influx of human resources would be directed to Gwadar instead of Karachi. The ship related industries would spring up and export processing and industrial zones would be established. The oil storage, refinery and petrochemicals would be an obvious functionary. The allied infrastructure would involve internal roads, hospitals, education institutions, warehouses, commercial and residential areas and office buildings. The corporate infrastructure would include hotels and motels, cargo and trucking yards, shipyards, dry docks and bunkers for ships. Above all, labour related opportunities for thousands of skilled and non-skilled workers would reduce unemployment in the country in general and Balochistan in particular, to a reasonable extent.

The oil reserves and natural recourses of the Central Asian states have become the focus of world’s attention; our geographical location in the proximity of Central Asia gives us the opportunity to become one of the vital export corridors in the region. Our western coastline is at the crossroads of international sea lines of communication; in addition we have other potential port sites along our coast. In the absence of visionary planning to develop Gwadar earlier or owing to other un-avoidable reasons, Pakistan missed the scope of an international harbour. The major commercial centres with bulk port facilities came up in the region elsewhere; however, the gulf had the added advantage of the discovery of oil. The Central Asian states would definitely prefer the Pakistani port because except the Iranian ports, specifically the Chah Bahar, other gulf ports are on the opposite side. The Central Asian states should opt for the economically viable, cost effective and shortest route to the Arabian Sea for transit and pipe line routes. Pakistan is situated at the interface of Central Asia and South Asia thus provides the shortest route to the land locked states. India too announced to construct railway lines connecting Central Asia, however for geographical reasons the proposal could not materialise, hence the possibility of any secured transit route is through Pakistan. The sea lanes from the Persian Gulf could be monitored from a strategic point of view, as Gwadar lies astride the sea lanes originating from the strategic choke point of Hormuz. The Indian Ocean trade routes of far eastern countries could be overseen as well. Pakistan could utilise Gwadar as an alternative Naval base to prevent any blockade by the Indian Navy, as experienced in the 1971 war and the Kargil crisis. The strategic depth to Pakistan maritime assets commercially and militarily would be an additional benefit.

Now, the question arises that whether the prevailing environment in Pakistan is conducive for the mega project. The vast expanse of tribal land, inadequate security, sardars and nawabs oriented tribal clans, rampant smuggling of narcotics and weapons and nationalist activists have weakened the government’s writ in Balochistan. The law and order situation worsens intermittently; the foreign elements covert intervention is another contributory factor. These factors are likely to grow, if economic affluence of Gwadar is not shared visibly with locals as the province suffers from socio-economic backwardness. The government’s neglect and exploitations have diminished the national sprits of the inhabitants of Balochistan, harbouring ill feelings particularly against Punjab. The educated youth is unemployed, rather are hostages at the hands of sub-nationalists. Job opportunities in the province are otherwise bleak owing to numerous reasons, yet the Frontier Corps Balochistan (Civil Armed Force) is amazingly devoid of local recruitment. The enrolment in Frontier Corps alone could get thousands of jobs. Gwadar promises new jobs, but are the young Balochis skilled enough to seek employment and have the requisite know how? As compared to the other provinces of Pakistan, the Balochis feel caste away, neglected and deprived. They opine that they do not get their due share of socioeconomic benefits in the backdrop of rich national resources. The rifts between Federal and Provincial governments have aggravated the situation in the past. Military actions in the provinces also have had repercussions. The killings of Nawab Akbar Bugti and other young Mari tribal chiefs will not be forgotten easily nor will the situation return to normalcy soon. The centuries old sardari and nawabi system is indeed a major hurdle in the prosperity and well being of the common populace, who are exploited by sardars. The allegiance of tribesmen to their tribal chiefs would always resist any attempt to abolish this system. The establishment of cantonments is seen as attempts to eliminate the sardars, hence is opposed and widely criticised. The natural gas issue and its royalty issue have further added to the sense of deprivation of the masses.

To be continued…

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Gwadar: the future of Pakistan - II
Mukaram Khan

The nationalists of the province have shown serious reservations on the Gwadar project and the proposed construction of military installations at the behest of foreign elements whose interests are visible. Their misconceptions that the employment of people from other parts of the country would turn the Baloch into a minority and usurp the natural resources of the area are dichotomies. Their other political concerns encompass the construction of cantonments that perhaps in their opinion would control the wealth of the province.

Non-Baloch settling in Gwadar or elsewhere in Balochistan should not exercise the right of vote. They would not be allowed to be domiciled in Balochistan so that the Baloch are not turned into a minority. Only the local population of Balochistan should be trained and employed for the Gwadar project. The control of the project with the federal government would benefit Punjab elites; thus it should be with the provincial government.

The provincial authorities should be authorised to have direct economic ventures with the foreign investors. These demands envisage maximum benefits to Balochistan but these have to be viewed from a different perspective and need to be resolved accordingly, as the clandestine motives of foreign players are no more a secret.

Despite the negative propaganda and the killing of three Chinese engineers in May 2004, the project seems to have progressed steadily.

The Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) had claimed responsibility of this heinous incident. In case more Chinese are targeted in future, China might abandon the project and that would cause inexorable burden on Pakistan's economy. The nationalist activists intimidate the non-Baloch workers in an attempt to scare them away and force the government to employ only locals. To hamper the project and to coerce the investors, bomb and rocket attacks are used; as this is a common phenomenon resorted to by the insurgents.

The dissident tribal men can create law and order situation to undermine the writ of the government. Resultantly, local and foreign companies would go away. The elements with vested interests can resort to strikes and create a situation of unrest, as has been witnessed on countless occasions in the past. The political parties can stage anti-project rallies and agitation on account of the so-called subjugation of the rights of the Baloch. Political unrest shall have devastating effects on the ongoing project.

Countries like Iran and India have their economic interests associated with the Gwadar port; especially India, as it is exploiting the dissident elements and nationalist leaders of Balochistan to impede the project through acts of terrorism. Similarly, the Kalabagh Dam project had been maligned by India through malicious designs and has finally succeeded in strangulating the energy and agriculture sectors of Pakistan. Dwelling on the global interests, concerns of regional and extra regional powers and their implications, despite all accruing advantages, Gwadar may not auger well in the economic, military, and political interests of many countries.

China's overwhelming involvement in the mega project and the possibility of Chinese naval presence would not be liked by the US. A protracted resistance is, therefore, increasing the security concerns of Pakistan, relating to the Gwadar Port project. The foreseeable foothold of China in the Arabian Sea is a source of concern for the US because Malacca Strait, through which the Chinese oil vessels pass, is already controlled by the US, owing to her presence in the Gulf.

In case of any conflict in the future, China fears that the US would choke off its supplies. The US desires to be involved in Gwadar because a short route being developed towards the Arabian Sea would consolidate its hold over Afghanistan; therefore, Balochistan is being focused on by the US. Pak-China collaboration has endangered Indian interests in the region, as any economic or military development of Pakistan causes inexplicable annoyance to India. She has, therefore, formed a strategic alliance with Afghanistan and Iran as a counter measure. India is anxiously looking forward to a shorter transit route to Afghanistan and Central Asian states through Iran.

Indian efforts to keep Balochistan simmering with law and order problems are evident from her patronage of exiled dissidents and in home nationalists. Iran would not like monopoly of Gwadar as the main route to sea from Central Asia via Afghanistan, since Iranian port Chah Bahar is also equally viable; the project is likely to confront competition from Iran. Iran and Turkey are interested in railway line connection from Almaty (Kazakhstan) via Tashkent (Uzbekistan) to Tehran and Istanbul, which would be further extended to Europe.

Iran's future position by establishing a rail and road route to Central Asia cannot be ignored as she is not facing any turbulence in its immediate neighbours - Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan. The Pakistani leadership ought to exercise extreme care and sagacity in Pak-Iran ties in view of her role in the region. China's export origination from western region would proffer her an option to avoid eastern coasts which entail extra distance of 10,000 kilometers.

China, being a strong regional power, has undertaken the mega project which would be an integral part of the China foreign trade route in the foreseeable future. It is conjectured that the entire Middle East, Central Asia and South Asia could utilise the Gwadar deep sea port, which has to be from and to Afghanistan. It would be an opportunity and threat to the adjoining sea ports. Russia has endeavoured to form axis with Iran to counter the influence of the NATO forces present in the region.

Russia opposes any economic cooperation between Pakistan and Central Asia. The most sizzling is Afghanistan, being the middle ground between the Central Asia and Pakistan. The US military and economic interests in the garb of pursuance of the al Qaeda have been unveiled ever since the invasion of Afghanistan. Should we wait for the US to fall back home or have equally impartial bilateral relations with the Afghan government, the Northern Alliance and Taliban, is a million dollar question.

Let us wait and see the fate of Afghanistan and our tribal areas. In the meantime, we should obliterate the apprehensions of the Baloch and address their genuine grievances which would help create political harmony and national cohesion. The federal government is indeed endeavouring a little for building confidence of locals and nationalists, but is the provincial government putting in its effort or it is still subservient to ethnic groups, sub nationalist political factions and pressure tactics of the so-called separatists?

Bilateral ties between the federal and provincial governments should have no disputes on board. The hostile designs of foreign exploiters need to be thwarted by pro-active diplomatic measures by the ministry of foreign affairs. The city of opportunity should be promoted akin to attract foreign investment. The deep sea port is not specific to China alone, international community may have conceived what India is propagating through their diplomatic means. Our media should target national and international audience by portraying the Gwadar as the future of Pakistan and the region.

The development of this mega project will be completed in a decade or so and would serve the country for a century. Apathy of the situation is evident from the callous attitude of some politicians and the national government. We all should launch a massive campaign for the project, lest it meets the fate of the Kalabagh dam.

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