Pakistan's GDP estimated $162.6 billion per year

[Naveed Yaseen]

By Sajid Chaudhry

ISLAMABAD: Due to the economic slowdown in the country and the global financial crisis, nominal gross domestic product (GDP) of the country has been estimated at $162.6 billion in this fiscal year 2008-09 as compared with $167.5 billion in last fiscal year 2007-08 showing a decrease by $4.9 billion.

However, it has been projected that nominal GDP would grow to $171 billion in next fiscal year 2009-10 as compared with GDP estimates of $162.6 billion in current projection. The revised Macroeconomic framework for the current fiscal and proposed macroeconomic targets for the next fiscal year incorporated in PRSP II document by the Ministry of Finance show.

Exchange Rate: Exchange rate that had been at Rs 62.5 a US dollar in the last fiscal year 2007-08 is estimated to remain at Rs 79.8 a dollar in current fiscal year and Rs 83.6 a dollar in 2009-10, and Rs 95.9 a dollar in 20012-13.

Per Capita GDP: Per Capita Income that had increased to $1,041 in the last fiscal year would come down to $993 in the current fiscal year and again increase to $1,027 in next fiscal year 2009-10.

Agriculture: Agriculture growth has been estimated at 3.3 percent in this fiscal as against the growth of 1.5 percent in last fiscal year and projected growth of agriculture is 3.5 percent in next fiscal year.

Manufacturing: Manufacturing sector that had posted a growth of 5.4 percent in last fiscal year is projected to witness a negative growth of 2.9 percent in the current fiscal and projected to rebound to 2.5 percent in the next fiscal year.

Services: Services sector, which remained main contributor in GDP growth of the country during last few years, is projected to post a growth of 4.1 percent in the current fiscal as against growth of 8.2 percent in the last fiscal year. It has been projected that services sector to register a growth of 4.6 percent in next fiscal year 2009-10.

Inflation: Inflation based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) is estimated to stay around 20 percent in the current fiscal year as compared with 12 percent in the last fiscal and projected to come down to 6 percent in next fiscal year 2009-10.

Investment: Investmen as compared with GDP is estimated at 19.5 percent for the current fiscal as against 21.6 percent in the last fiscal and it has been projected at 20.3 percent in next fiscal year.

National Savings: National Savings has been estimated at 13.6 percent in current fiscal compared with 13.2 percent in last fiscal year. However, it has been projected that national savings to increase to 16 percent in the next fiscal year 2009-10.

Pakistan’s Consolidated Fiscal Framework: Total revenue has been estimated at Rs 1.973 trillion in current fiscal as compared with Rs 1.5 trillion in last fiscal year and it has been projected that total revenues would be Rs 2.271 trillion in next fiscal year. Total expenditures are estimated at Rs 2.535 trillion in the current fiscal as compared with Rs 2.279 trillion in last fiscal and Rs 2.746 trillion in next fiscal year 2009-10.

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp...2009_pg5_9