The most likely scenario

[Lahore_Real_Estate]

It was a bit of an anticlimax for those who were expecting heavens to fall in the name of rule of law when Law Minister Babar Awan appeared before the apex court to explain the government's reluctance to write to the Swiss courts to reopen cases of money-laundering against President Asif Ali Zardari. Earlier the full bench hearing of petitions against the 18th Amendment and the NRO by the Supreme Court failed to bring the din of clash of institution to a crescendo.

But this does not mean that the long hot summer of discontent has ended and that there is smooth sailing ahead for the beleaguered PPP government. For the foreseeable future, legal and constitutional petitions are expected to drag on. Those who want to see the back of the government or even the system dismantled through the courts will remain somewhat disappointed.

PML-N supremo Mian Nawaz Sharif has exhorted the government to show respect to the decisions of the judiciary and give up what he termed its "policy of defiance." The government is unlikely to follow the advice of Mian Sahib, whose own record as prime minister of showing respect to the higher judiciary is not entirely unblemished.

Nor is the apex court going to easily give up its pursuit of Mr Zardari. So far as the new procedure of appointing and confirming judges under the 18th Amendment is concerned, it is bound to come under the scrutiny of the Court as more than eighty judges of the superior courts are to be confirmed and at least forty new judicial appointments are to be made in the coming months.

Another element is that of whether Gen Kayani's tenure will extend beyond November, when it is due to end. Gen Kayani is not seeking an extension, and none of the army chiefs under civilian regimes were given extension of their tenures. In some cases, when such an offer was made to an incumbent chief, it was spurned.

Unless sacked or prematurely retired, tenures of members of the military high command in established democracies is rarely a matter of public discussion. Most people in India would not even be aware of the names of their services chiefs. There is public speculation over such appointments In Pakistan because the country has been ruled mostly by military strongmen.

Media persons covering a funeral the other day quizzed Defence Minister Chaudhry Ahmed Mukhtar about the future of Gen Kayani. Instead of his avoiding the controversial question, pat came the reply that the government was neither granting Gen Kayani an extension and nor had he sought one. The very next day Prime Minister Gilani snubbed his Defence Minister by saying that it was premature to speculate on the issue.

A strong case can be made for the extension of Gen Kayani's tenure. Under his command the Pakistani army has successfully fought the war against terror. He has studiously avoided meddling in civilian matters, although on a few occasions he has quietly and tactfully intervened to facilitate the smooth running of the democratic system. Although he has good rapport with US generals, which is extremely important when Pakistan is the lynchpin in Washington's military strategy in the region, he has managed to withstand American pressure where necessary.

Since Gen Kayani is not seeking an extension and has understandably preferred to maintain a stony silence on the issue, the defence minister did not make a sensational revelation by saying that the COAS is not seeking an extension of his term. However, it is not in the interest of the government or the institution Gen Kayani represents to speculate on the matter, especially in these trying times when the country is virtually in a state of war against terrorism.

Next week Finance Minister Dr Hafeez Sheikh will present his first budget. According to the IMF, Pakistan's economy has stabilised in the past year and now is poised for growth. However, according to its conditionality, future tranches for Pakistan will be contingent upon the finance minister slapping a 15 per cent value added tax (VAT) across the board in the budget. It might be good news for the economy in the long run, but for the common citizen already struggling to make ends meet it could be the proverbial last straw that broke the camel's back.

State Bank governor Salim Raza, a poet and intellectual and the pick of former finance minister Shaukat Tarin, has resigned. According to informed speculation he has been asked to hand over his papers. There are moves to bring his predecessor, Ms Shamshad Akhtar, back as governor. It is not known what prompted Salim Raza's exit at a time when monetary and fiscal stability was most needed.

Undoubtedly, the government faces multifarious economic, political and external challenges. Some of them are germane to Pakistan's chequered political history and its unique circumstances owing to successive military and quasi-military governments and inept and corrupt civilian rulers. However, many of the problems can be specifically traced to the poor governance record of the present government.

The PPP-led government seems increasingly confident that it will complete its term. Virtually in the middle of its term, it has successfully warded off political, economic and strategic challenges with a mixture of uncanny political skill and good luck. The legal challenges notwithstanding, there is no immediate threat to the stability of the government.

Unless there is a force majeure of sorts, the opposition under Mian Nawaz Sharif is neither in a position to dislodge the government nor does it have the desire to do so. While addressing the media after a consultative meeting of senior party leaders in Murree, he termed the government's actions "a threat to democracy." However, since he is mostly ensconced in his 117-acres Riawind estate or travelling abroad, his fulminations remain little more than empty words.

Wishful thinking notwithstanding, there is little likelihood of a military intervention. The army is bogged down in fighting domestic insurgencies in Fata and Swat and combating terrorism in the rest of the country. Its present leadership is enlightened enough to know that military coups in the past, although never resisted and sometimes even welcomed, have only exacerbated the country's problems. Hence, ruling the country at its present juncture is not high amongst its priorities.

The Obama administration is doing fine with the prevailing power equation in Pakistan. A possible coup would upset the applecart for the West, invoking automatic economic sanctions against Pakistan--a recipe for disaster for its already fragile economy which is dependant on US and IMF doles. In a worst-case scenario, even if the Supreme Court under the relevant clause of the Constitution asks the army to intervene to have its orders implemented, it is unlikely that the request will be complied with.

Another scenario not being entirely ruled out is an in-house change within the parliament. The present numbers of the PPP-led coalition and Prime Minister Gilani's interpersonal skills transcending party lines militate against this happening soon. Mian Nawaz Sharif is not an acceptable choice for most. In his two tenures as prime minister he could not get along with the army chiefs, the presidents or the chief justice of Pakistan. His ostensibly pro-Taliban image hardly endears him to the US. Only the government going for midterm elections could usher him back to power. This is unlikely to happen.

Despite the challenges, the government's survival and completion of its term seems to be the likely scenario. However, poor governance resulting in deteriorating economic conditions could give rise to chaos to a scale that it brings people on the streets. Such a breakdown, coupled with an increase in terrorism, would be disastrous not only for the government but for the country as well. Hence the need to avoid a clash of state institutions by the protagonists, at all costs.