Trade deficit declines by 19%, but export target to be missed

[Naveed Yaseen]

By Sajid Chaudhry

ISLAMABAD: The trade deficit of the country has witnessed a decrease of 19.09 percent or $3.576 billion during first eleven months of outgoing fiscal year 2008-09 with total deficit at $15.221 billion as compared with deficit of $18.797 billion in same period of last fiscal year 2007-08, According to the official figures released by Federal Bureau of Statistic (FBS).

Downwards revised exports target of $19.2 billion is also likely to be missed in the outgoing fiscal year 2008-09 as the exports have been recorded at $16.262 billion in July-May period and country requires exports of $2.93 billion in the month of June 2009 to meet this target.

The government had fixed the exports target of $22.1 billion in July with the few assumptions, however, global economic slowdown and local difficulties like shortage of electric power, gas and devaluation of Pak Rupee as well as highest ever inflation has forced the authorities to revised the exports target from $22.1 billion to $19.2 billion.

The country has been able to export goods around $1.45 billion per month during the outgoing fiscal year 2008-09; however, the required exports target for the month of June 2009 is estimated at $2.93 billion, which seems impossible.

The exports of the country managed to reach $16.262 billion in the said period as compared with exports of $17.143 billion in same period of last fiscal year, projecting an decrease of 5.14 percent.

Imports of the country also declined by 12.40 percent or $4.45 billion with total imports at $31.483 billion in Jul-May period of current fiscal year as compared with imports of $35.941 billion in same period of last fiscal year.

May 2009 over May 2008: Owing to the slowdown in the economies of Pakistan’s major trading partners like US and EU, the export demand was dampened and exports were recorded at $1.499 billion in the month of May 2009 as against the exports of $1.920 billion in May 2008 projecting a decline of 12.91 percent.

Imports during May 2009 also witnessed a major decline of 34.02 percent with total imports at $2.561 billion as compared with imports of $3.882 billion in May 2008. Trade deficit during May 2009 also dived by 45.88 percent in May 2009 with total deficit at $1.061 billion as against the deficit of $1.961 billion in May 2008.

May over April: The trade analysis of May 2009 over April 2009 suggests that country’s exports witnessed a double digit growth of 10.08 percent in May with total exports at $1.499 billion as against the exports of $1.362 billion in April 2009.

Imports in May 2009 were some 8.47 percent less with total imports at $2.561 billion as against the $2.798 billion imports made in April 2009. Trade deficit in May 2009 declined by 26.07 percent with total deficit at $1.061 billion as against the deficit of $1.435 billion in April 2009.

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp...2009_pg5_6