Usual cycle of monsoons expected this year: Met

[Naveed Yaseen]

By Azeem Samar
Barring the possibility of pre-monsoon rains, the Meteorological Department has issued forecast of normal monsoon rains in Karachi and the areas around it for the current year.

The Meteorological Department has issued its seasonal forecast for the region as various civic and municipal agencies in the city have been strengthening their drainage systems to combat possible flooding.

“This year’s monsoon rains are likely to be plus-10 per cent of a long-term average,” said a statement issued by Naeem Shah who is Director Computerised Data Processing Centre, Meteorological Department.

The Met office issued seasonal forecast of the monsoons for July-September 2009 in consideration of the weather conditions prevailing over Pakistan.

Naeem Shah said that normal rainfall for July-September 2009 is 137.5 millimetres and plus-10 per cent average rains means that up to 151mm of rainfall could occur in the region in the upcoming season.

He said that Karachi lies in the south-western part of the country where weather patterns of the past seasons indicated that above average monsoon rains could take place this year too. In the previous years, just one spell of monsoon rains in the region was enough to make up half the average amount of seasonal falls, said the met official.

The monsoon season in the region occurs when low-pressure systems emerging from Bay of Bengal cause rains in south-eastern, central, and northern parts of the country.

Muhammad Riaz, Chief Meteorologist, Karachi, told The News on Thursday that so far no westerly movement of low-pressure systems or depression from the Bay of Bengal could be observed. This could cause early or pre-monsoon rains in Karachi and its adjacent regions.

He said that South Westerly winds with an incursion of moisture from the Arabian Sea could attract low-pressure systems or depressions towards the coastal areas of Sindh. Otherwise, the monsoon system could move towards the coastal areas of Balochistan or up-country areas, causing rain there. Without favourable wind and moisture patterns, the system would cause a recurrence of rain in the Indian Rajasthan region.

Riaz said that the emergence of cyclones that causes landfall on the coastal areas of Sindh and Balochistan is largely a local phenomenon developing in the Arabian Sea. He added that at present the wind direction for the city is South Westerly with a heavy presence of moisture.

In the 2008 monsoon, Karachi received less than normal, that is, 91.5mm rain with 54mm rain in July and 37.5mm rain in August.

In 2007 when a catastrophic situation was created in the city in the aftermath of monsoon rains, the city received total of 291.4mm rain in the season with 41mm rain in June and 250.4mm rain in July. In 2006, the city received total 236.7mm rain during monsoons, with 66.2mm rain in July, 148.6mm rain in August and 21.9mm rain in September. In 2005, the city received just 56.5mm rain with 1.3mm in July, 0.3mm in August and 54.9mm in September.

http://www.thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=184029