Heavier than average monsoon expected: Met

[Naveed Yaseen]

By Munawar Hasan
THE monsoon is likely to come late by a week or so this year due to the dry weather pattern possibly caused by climate change in the region, the Met officials have said.

According to a Met Office report here on Tuesday, unlike the previous years, the monsoon was expected to start at the end of the first week of July. The month of June has remained mainly dry this year and the trend is expected to continue. It is also expected that monsoon currents may appear around northern and central Punjab from June 28-29, stretching from Islamabad to Lahore and the adjoining districts. A full-fledged spell of the monsoon may take place at the end of the first week of July.

The monsoon is already delayed in India where less rains are witnessed in several states, sending alarms in the arid states of the country. According to reports, rainfall from June 1 to 17 in several Indian states was 45 per cent below average. There are fears in India that another drought may be around the corner with little or no rains for more than three weeks after the onset of the monsoon. However, it is predicted that there will a normal monsoon in the northern parts of the country.

Despite fear of a weak monsoon in India, the Met officials are upbeat that the delayed monsoon would cause above normal rainfall this year.

Deviation in the monsoon in Pakistan might be linked to climate change but no definite conclusion could be drawn for the time being, said an official of the Flood Forecasting Division. Interestingly, he admitted, there was no mechanism in place for assessing the impact of much-hyped climate change on the pattern of rainfall in the country.

Agriculture experts warn that the delay in the monsoon will affect paddy sowing in Punjab as rains are beneficial for water-intensive rice crop during transplantation.

Despite the expected delay, Met officials predict 10 per cent above-normal monsoon rains this year. When contacted, Chief Meteorologist Hazrat Mir told The News that above average rains during July, August and September would greatly supplement irrigation requirements of Kharif crops. He said temperatures in June had been below normal in major parts of the country. For instance, he added, the maximum temperature of Lahore in the first week of June had been 31c, which was a rare phenomenon. He said due to westerly waves, rains did occur in parts of the country in the first week of June, lowering the mercury level its upper parts. Resultantly, he said, snow melting was adversely affected causing low inflows in rivers.

Citing a recent study, the chief meteorologist said flows in western rivers, namely the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab, had been below the normal owing to slow process of snow melting. He was confident that water shortage would be minimal in Kharif season as river flow would gradually pick up along with above average monsoon rains.

http://www.thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=184670