Country to confront 0.507bcfd gas shortfall in 2010

[Naveed Yaseen]

By Ijaz Kakakhel
ISLAMABAD: The energy experts forecast that gas shortfall would increase to 0.507 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2010 from the current year shortage of 0.192 bcfd with the shortfall further aggravating with the passage of time.

The gas shortfall would reach to about 10.340 bcfd by 2025 from 0.192 bcfd shortfall in 2009, sources told Daily Times here on Thursday. The total availability of natural gas for the year 2009 was forecasted at 4.346 bcfd and the total demand for natural gas was 4.538 bcfd in the same period. The indigenous supply of gas in 2010 was predicted as 4.309 bcfd and projected demand for gas would be 4.816 bcfd in the same year and the total shortfall would rise to 0.507 bcfd.

The projections further revealed that the indigenous gas production in 2015 would reach 3.671 bcfd and the demand would rise to 6.383 bcfd. By the year 2020, the estimated gas production would be 2.522 bcfd and the projected demand for gas would be 8.320 bcfd.

Similarly, by 2025, the projected indigenous gas supplies would be 2.167 bcfd and the estimated demand for gas would rises to 12.507 bcfd, showing a net shortfall of 10.340 bcfd.

The projections are based on fact that the supply of gas would decline gradually due to depletion in the existing resource base and no new discovery. The demand for gas would increase due to increase in its usage, increase in population, and expansion in gas utility connections to other parts of the country.

If proper action is not taken in time for increase in supply of gas either by increase in local discovery or through import like materialisation of IPI gas pipeline project the situation would become grave for both the domestic and industrial users. To meet higher demand for oil and gas, the government has to update the technology so that more exploration and production of gas could be made possible.

Sources further said that keeping in view gas shortage, finalisation of Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline is of crucial importance. The IPI pipeline might be optimally used for power generation as it can produce 15 percent cheaper power than power generation through furnace oil. The use of IPI gas for domestic use would be costly, the sources added.

For increase in local oil and gas production, the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Resources has set a drilling target of 100 wells for current year to increase local production of oil and gas. "We can double the oil and gas exploration by adopting the modern techniques."

Other main problem for drilling of more oil and gas are security concerns because most of the resources are available in provinces of NWFP and Balochistan where local and foreign investors are shy to invest, the sources added. The imported natural gas, even at Iran's latest increased price, remains economically the most feasible option as compared to other imported fuels such as furnace oil, LNG and coal, analyst opined.

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp...2009_pg5_1